Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Nobel predictions

Tyler Cowen offers his predictions and critiques those from Thomson-Reuters.

A few of my own:

1. GMM prize - Lars Hansen

2. Search prize - Dale Mortensen and Chris Pissarides

3. Structural prize - John Rust and Ken Wolpin

4. Allocation mechanism prize - Al Roth

At some point in the future we will, of course, see

5. Experiments in development prize - Esther Duflo and maybe Michael Kremer

My guess is that this year's prize will be neither political (like Paul Krugman) nor obscure (like last year's winners).

If the committee is in a humorous mood, they will give it to Nuriel Roubini.

Addendum: On further reflection, I'll add:

6. Bounds ("set identification") / statistical treatment rules / identification: Chuck Manski

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