Book: Against Prediction by Bernard Harcourt

Harcourt, Bernard. 2007. Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age. Chicago: University of Chicago Press

This is really two books in one. The first part of the book is a completely fascinating history of the use of prediction (a.k.a. statistical treatment rules, a.k.a. profiling) in a criminal justice context in the United States. Perhaps surprisingly, this history dates back to eccentric sociologists in the early 20th century. The history has interest in its own right, but also serves as yet one more reminder that using statistical models applied to what were at the time "big" data to generate actionable predictions is no new thing. The methods have improved, and our standards of bigness have grown, but the idea and an understanding of many of the basic issues go way back.

The second half of the book critiques the more recent literature and policy practice in the criminal justice domain. This critique has three parts: The first makes the point that individuals most likely to engage in some behavior may not be those most likely to respond to some intervention. This is not a new point - it appears in Black, Smith, Berger and Noel (2003) in the context of UI profiling and it was not new there either - but it is one that many people really have trouble understanding. Much of this discussion in the book centers on the literature on police profiling in roadside stops. The second criticism concerns a sort of "ratchet" effect whereby the focus of criminal justice resources on one particular group as a result of the use of prediction models leads to a misguided change in public perceptions of underlying differences in criminal behavior across groups. The third criticism concerns changes in our underlying philosophical notions of justice that might result from the growing dominance of prediction in how we implement the justice system in practice.

I found the first criticism both the best realized in the book and the most compelling. The others are provocative and, in the case of the ratchet effect, have a sort of face validity, but, I felt, a bit underdeveloped in the text.

I enjoyed reading the book and learned a lot from it. Recommended if you are into such things.

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Hat tip: Shawn Bushway, for recommending it to me several years ago.

There is no great stagnation - oreo edition

The sad fact of the matter is that it took me a while to figure out these variants were not actually for sale to the general public.

Hat tip: my wife the healthy eater

Still more academic x pandemic humor

McSweeny's on hastily-prepared online courses.

Not their very best material, but topical to be sure.

I think this is a fine compromise position

Seen on a recent socially distant walk around the neighborhood.

Virtual NCAA tournament

It features a single simulation based on ESPN's power index. Guess who wins?

Addendum: the local paper's coverage of Wisconsin's historic victory.

Hat tip: Tim Smeeding (which provides a clue about who wins)

More pandemic x academic humor

Hat tip: Dr. Brown

Book: The Genuine Article by Edmund Morgan

Morgan, Edmund. 2004. The Genuine Article: A Historian Looks at Early America. W.W. Norton and Company.

This is a collection of book reviews by a noted American (in both senses) historian. The book reviews, as is standard in the New York Review of Books where they appeared, do more than just narrowly remark on a particular book; instead, they provide brief introductions to particular literatures in the course of putting the book or books at hand into context. I enjoyed it throughout.

But shouldn't it be "An Historian"?

Recommended if you are into such things.

Amazon book page
Barnes and Noble book page