Whew.
9 years ago
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Mara Berman Lederman seminar at Michigan
Mara Berman Lederman is at Michigan this Friday. Mara was one of the two or three strongest honors undergraduates I interacted with during my seven years at Western Ontario (where she was known among the faculty as "magnificent Mara"). Sadly, I will miss her talk as I am at a conference on Friday. But local economist readers should think about going. The topic sounds fun and she is very bright.
We investigate gaming of a public disclosure program and, in particular, whether gaming depends on the incentives provided to the employees who are most likely to carry out the gaming. We do this in the context of the government-mandated disclosure of airline on-time performance. While this program collects data on the actual minutes of delay incurred on each flight, it ranks airlines based only on the fraction of their flights that arrive 15 or more minutes late. This creates incentives for airlines to game the program by reducing delays on specifically those flights they expect to arrive with about 15 minutes of delay. In addition, several airlines have introduced employee incentive programs based explicitly on the airline’s performance in the government program. Our empirical analysis finds no evidence of gaming by airlines without incentive programs or with incentive programs with targets that are unrealistically hard to achieve.
On the other hand, we find strong evidence of gaming by airlines that implemented incentive programs with targets that could be – and were - achieved. Specifically, we find that their flights that are predicted to arrive with about 15 minutes of delay have significantly shorter taxi-in times and are significantly more likely to arrive exactly one minute sooner than predicted. Our findings highlight that gaming of a disclosure program will not only depend on the design of the program but will also depend on if and how the measured quality dimensions can be manipulated and whether those who are in a position to manipulate them have incentives to do so.
Paper here.
Here are the details:
BE SEMINAR
Friday, October 28, 2011
12-1:30 pm
Room: E1540
Presenter: Mara Lederman, University of Toronto
Topic: Quality Disclosure and Gaming: Do Employee Incentives Matter?
Abstract
We investigate gaming of a public disclosure program and, in particular, whether gaming depends on the incentives provided to the employees who are most likely to carry out the gaming. We do this in the context of the government-mandated disclosure of airline on-time performance. While this program collects data on the actual minutes of delay incurred on each flight, it ranks airlines based only on the fraction of their flights that arrive 15 or more minutes late. This creates incentives for airlines to game the program by reducing delays on specifically those flights they expect to arrive with about 15 minutes of delay. In addition, several airlines have introduced employee incentive programs based explicitly on the airline’s performance in the government program. Our empirical analysis finds no evidence of gaming by airlines without incentive programs or with incentive programs with targets that are unrealistically hard to achieve.
On the other hand, we find strong evidence of gaming by airlines that implemented incentive programs with targets that could be – and were - achieved. Specifically, we find that their flights that are predicted to arrive with about 15 minutes of delay have significantly shorter taxi-in times and are significantly more likely to arrive exactly one minute sooner than predicted. Our findings highlight that gaming of a disclosure program will not only depend on the design of the program but will also depend on if and how the measured quality dimensions can be manipulated and whether those who are in a position to manipulate them have incentives to do so.
Paper here.
NASA misbehavior
NASA roughs up the elderly wife of the late astronaut Neil Armstrong.
I thought they were trying to get their budget increased, not their agency closed. How tone deaf can you possibly be? Jeez.
Addendum: alert readers Dan and Lones correctly pointed out that I read the reason article too quickly (or, perhaps more to the point, when I was not sufficiently awake). It was not Neil Armstrong's widow, but rather the widow of a co-worker of his. I am not sure that makes it better.
I thought they were trying to get their budget increased, not their agency closed. How tone deaf can you possibly be? Jeez.
Addendum: alert readers Dan and Lones correctly pointed out that I read the reason article too quickly (or, perhaps more to the point, when I was not sufficiently awake). It was not Neil Armstrong's widow, but rather the widow of a co-worker of his. I am not sure that makes it better.
William Niskanen, RIP
A nice blog post from reason provides further links.
Niskanen also generated one of the main theories of bureaucratic behavior, namely budget maximization. It doesn't explain everything, but it does surely account of a chunk of the variation.
Niskanen also generated one of the main theories of bureaucratic behavior, namely budget maximization. It doesn't explain everything, but it does surely account of a chunk of the variation.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Gaddafi's end
Some gruesome photos and video of the nearly dead, and newly dead, Libyan dictator.
Truly, nothing is private any more.
Truly, nothing is private any more.
Book: Soft Apocalypse by Will McIntosh
I was in the mood for some science fiction, have always been a fan (not sure why, if I had a therapist maybe I'd know) of post-apocalypse fiction and so I read Soft Apocalypse by Will McIntosh, which I picked from the bones of the Borders in Burlington, Vermont on a trip this summer.
It is very much science fiction. The main character, a likable, nerdy sort of guy who does not do that well with women and does not think very deeply about anything ever, will be familiar from many other science fiction stories by many different authors. The characters are pretty one-dimensional. There are more coincidences than Dickens at his best (or is that his worst?). The briefly appearing economist character does not quite ring true. And for a story set in Savannah, Georgia, the near total absence of Christians is a bit jarring. One might imagine they would have things to say as civilization collapses.
But one does not read science fiction for character or writing, one reads it for ideas, and there are some ideas here that are interesting enough. Ever since visiting the Roman baths in Bath I have been thinking on and off about what it would be like to live at a time when civilization was moving backwards rather than forwards. What would it have been like for those left behind to watch as the Roman pulled out of Britain? That is the sort of reality that McIntosh wants to capture in his book, though in the context of the 21st century American south. In particular, I liked the idea of arrogant and politically motivated scientists trying to hasten the crash and thus the renewal. I also liked McIntosh's portrayal of the gradual collapse of normative social order and of legitimate political authority.
So, overall, okay, maybe even good, but not great. I found a bunch of more positive reviews online, such as this one, and the Amazon comments do a pretty good job of capturing both the strengths and weaknesses of the book.
Recommended for those who like post-apocalyptic fiction.
It is very much science fiction. The main character, a likable, nerdy sort of guy who does not do that well with women and does not think very deeply about anything ever, will be familiar from many other science fiction stories by many different authors. The characters are pretty one-dimensional. There are more coincidences than Dickens at his best (or is that his worst?). The briefly appearing economist character does not quite ring true. And for a story set in Savannah, Georgia, the near total absence of Christians is a bit jarring. One might imagine they would have things to say as civilization collapses.
But one does not read science fiction for character or writing, one reads it for ideas, and there are some ideas here that are interesting enough. Ever since visiting the Roman baths in Bath I have been thinking on and off about what it would be like to live at a time when civilization was moving backwards rather than forwards. What would it have been like for those left behind to watch as the Roman pulled out of Britain? That is the sort of reality that McIntosh wants to capture in his book, though in the context of the 21st century American south. In particular, I liked the idea of arrogant and politically motivated scientists trying to hasten the crash and thus the renewal. I also liked McIntosh's portrayal of the gradual collapse of normative social order and of legitimate political authority.
So, overall, okay, maybe even good, but not great. I found a bunch of more positive reviews online, such as this one, and the Amazon comments do a pretty good job of capturing both the strengths and weaknesses of the book.
Recommended for those who like post-apocalyptic fiction.
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