It is Nobel time again.
My predictions for possible prizes in the near future, including this year:
Structural labor: John Rust and Ken Wolpin
Structural IO: some subset (possibly the whole set) of Barry, Levinsohn and Pakes
Larsometrics (i.e. GMM etc.): Lars Hansen
Institutional design: Al Roth
Set identification ("bounds") and peer effects and statistical treatment rules: Charles Manski
Farther in the future:
Field experiments in development: Esther Duflo
Various other predictions from the interwebs here and here (via Mankiw).
Nobel prize guessing humor from NPR (do they have a sense of humor?) (also via Mankiw).
I am puzzled by the predictions regarding Gordon Tullock and Jerry Hausman. Giving it to Tullock should have been done as a shared prize with Buchanan. Doing it now would be an admission of error. I think not. My sense is that Hausman has mostly consulted in recent years. There is nothing wrong with consulting but I don't think the Swedes will reward it.
For non-economists: GMM = generalized method of moments and IO = industrial organization.
Who was my favorite student this term?
6 months ago