The folks at orgtheory.net offer some good advice to young scholars in regard to journal submissions. The large fraction of desk rejections at many journals suggests that this advice is not being widely heeded.
In regard to the very top journals, I think one of two things will happen over time: either publications in the the top few journals will become less important relative to publications in the next level down or, as the top journals switch to solely electronic publishing, they will take more articles, so that the quality bar returns to what it was 25 or 30 years ago when many fewer scholars were writing articles of a quality level that made them potential top journal publications.
Right now, a handful of editors and their idiosyncratic tastes about what is interesting have way too much effect on the career outcomes of junior people.
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